Crosspoint Analysis: Home sales in Bucharest return to growth, with an estimated 23% increase in the final quarter

Bucharest, November 11, 2026 – Crosspoint Real Estate, International Associate of Savills in Romania, estimates that the Bucharest residential market will accelerate in the fourth quarter of the year, reaching approximately 14,200 home transactions, up by 23% compared to the same period in 2025. Even under a conservative scenario, based on the weakest year-end in the analyzed historical series, the fourth quarter would reach approximately 12,800 transactions, 11% above the level of the previous year.

"Following two months impacted by the transaction freeze, the market quickly recovered lost ground. The strong rebound in September and October, combined with the traditionally highly active year-end season, leads us to estimate that the final quarter will be the best of 2026 and that the year will close significantly closer to the 2025 level than summer data suggested," stated Ilinca Timofte, Head of Research at Crosspoint Real Estate.

For the full year, Crosspoint estimates approximately 43,800 home transactions in Bucharest, compared to 46,321 in 2025, which would narrow the gap against last year from 11.3% to approximately 5%.

Data from the 2017–2025 period shows that the fourth quarter is typically the most dynamic period of the year for the residential market in Bucharest. The fourth quarter was the most active in five of the last nine years, and December was the month with the highest number of transactions in four of them.

The forecast is supported by the market's rapid recovery following the summer disruption. In September, 4,563 homes were sold in Bucharest, 18.5% more than in September 2025, and in October 4,857, representing a 19.6% increase over the previous year. October was the best month of 2026, and cumulatively, the two months generated 9,420 transactions, 19.1% above the same period last year.

"The summer slowdown was caused by the temporary impossibility of completing transactions, not by a lack of buyers. As soon as activity resumed, sales rose above last year's level, and the fact that October maintained its momentum even after the expiration of the deadline for the 9% VAT rate indicates healthy demand that had merely been delayed," added Ilinca Timofte.

In the first ten months of the year, 34,460 homes were sold in Bucharest, 11.3% less than in the same period of 2025. The cyberattack on the cadastre systems, which temporarily blocked transactions in July and August, led to the postponement of approximately 5,500 transactions. Prior to this episode, the market had almost fully recovered the gap recorded at the start of the year. Following a first quarter that stood 16.6% below the 2025 level, sales grew by 2.2% in April, 15.9% in May, and 26.4% in June. At the end of the first half of the year, the difference compared to the previous year had narrowed to just 1.7%, with over 21,000 homes transacted.

Supply has also expanded strongly this year. In the first half, 10,773 new residential units were completed in Bucharest and Ilfov, up by 54% compared to the same period in 2025. The growth largely stems from the fiscal calendar applicable to the reduced VAT rate. Buyers who had pre-contracts signed by July 31, 2025, were able to benefit from the 9% VAT rate only if the transaction was completed by July 31, 2026, which prompted developers to accelerate construction pace and project deliveries.

Price trends further confirm the resilience of demand. In the third quarter, home prices remained at levels similar to the first half of the year, exceeding €2,600/sqm for new homes and approximately €2,300/sqm for existing homes in Bucharest. The average price of new homes is 22% above the level recorded one year ago.

See related press articles: Ziarul Financiar Economedia Business Review